“We cannot talk about a breakthrough until the agreements we reached are implemented” said a source from the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) but declined to mention his name. Four meetings have already taken place between Armenian envoy Ruben Rubinyan, and Turkish Ambassador Serdar Kılıç, yet we are still waiting to see concrete results.Intense negotiations continue between Armenian and Turkish diplomats to normalize bilateral relations and open the long-closed border, and with-it raising expectations. How close are we to a breakthrough?
The two officials, Rubinyan and Kılıç, are mandated by their governments the task of normalizing relations between the two neighbouring states, have made some progress of late. After their last meeting which took place in Vienna on July 1, the Turkish foreign ministry announcement was optimistic, as they “agreed to enable the crossing of the land border between Türkiye and Armenia by third-country citizens visiting Türkiye and Armenia respectively at the earliest date possible” and to allow “direct cargo trade”. The Turkish foreign ministry announcement also added that the envoys “discussed other possible concrete steps that can be undertaken towards achieving the ultimate goal of full normalization (…) without preconditions.”
The telephone conversation between the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on July 11 was another positive sign. The discussion between the two leaders addressed additional problems, such as the question of overflight of Armenian civil aviation which continues to face difficulties in receiving authorization from Turkey, because of which numerous flights are cancelled in the last moment.
Armenia was expecting the border would open to third country citizens in July or early August, for the tourist season, and to enhance trade between Armenia and easternmost provinces of Turkey. Yet, those announcements were not followed by any changes on the ground up to now. “We still do not see any concrete steps to convince us that Turkey is serious and that the negotiations are not simply an imitation process,” our source from the Armenian MFA added.
What are the obstacles hindering Armenian-Turkish normalization? As the Soviet Union collapsed and Armenia declared its sovereignty, Turkey recognized Armenia’s independence but continuously refused to establish diplomatic relations or open its borders. In the early 1990’s Turkey had two pre-conditions: that Armenia would not support efforts of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, and that Armenia would explicitly drop any demands for territorial compensations. Armenian answer was to normalize relations without preconditions – as Turkey had done with other Soviet republics. As the Karabakh conflict turned violent, and Armenian fighters occupied Azerbaijani Kelbajar in March 1993, Turkey added a third demand: the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories outside Nagorno Karabakh.
Now, the three Turkish preconditions are met. The Zurich protocols satisfied the first two demands, while in the aftermath of 2020 war Armenian troops withdrew from remaining Azerbaijani territories they occupied. Then, why is the process of normalization is taking so much time?
Our source said that Azerbaijan is playing a negative role, pressing Turkey to slow down the process of implementation, so that it does not surpass the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations. “Turkey should assume its leadership role vis à vis Azerbaijan,” he added.
Armenian-Turkish relations have not only historical complexity going back to the First World War, but the last three decades of lack of communications, imposing economic blockade on Armenia, and Turkish political choice to support Azerbaijan politically and militarily has made Armenian-Turkish relations highly complicated. Conditioning their progress with another highly complex conflict would make the resolution of the one or the other much more complex, if not impossible to achieve. “Linking the two processes is simply destructive,” according to the source.
On the other hand, by easing tensions and taking positive steps with Armenia, Turkey would help create conditions to ease tensions in and around Karabakh conflict zone. “Turkey should assume its leadership position vis à vis Azerbaijan,” according to our source.
The Armenian diplomat concluded saying: “Even tomorrow we are ready to open the borders and establish diplomatic relations.”